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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the biggest improvement wins the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

However the latest race is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions fading and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. In an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a wild and fun season, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to display his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a given following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

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