A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
